Whitepaper · August 2026

What a tonne will cost

Three channels of carbon cost for European companies, 2026–2040

Every capital decision taken this year settles its economics under the regime of the 2030s. This paper identifies the components of carbon cost, attaches published figures to each, and classifies every figure by what is legislated, what is proposed, what is forecast, and what is scenario. It does not offer a point forecast, and explains why no one credibly can.

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6 sections · 5 figures · 25 sources, each with publication vintage

Two questions, not one

Carbon cost reaches a company through three channels that do not behave alike and cannot be added together. Compliance is a cash cost under binding obligation. Operations and procurement is an incremental cash flow. Transition risk and commercial effect produces no invoice at all.

Three channels, one tonne Diagram showing one tonne of CO₂e reaching a company through three channels — compliance, operations and procurement, and transition risk — with an annotation that carbon cost embedded in energy and supplier prices must be counted once. Three channels, one tonne Carbon cost reaches a company through three distinct channels. Their effects overlap — each must be counted once. 1 t CO₂e CHANNEL A · COMPLIANCE Allowances, certificates, border adjustment EU ETS1 · ETS2 · CBAM · free-allocation phase-out Cash cost purchased under a binding obligation ALREADY EMBEDDED carbon cost sits inside energy, fuel and supplier prices — count it once CHANNEL B · OPERATIONS & PROCUREMENT Consumption, sourcing, purchased inputs efficiency · substitution · contract structure Cash flow incremental operating saving or cost CHANNEL C · TRANSITION RISK & COMMERCIAL How counterparties assess you lenders · anchor customers · insurers · tenders No invoice financing terms, margin, market access not a cash charge — do not convert to €/t without a defensible attribution method ENOQI · WHAT A TONNE WILL COST · FIG. 1
Fig. 1 · Three channels, one tonne

The channels overlap. Carbon costs are already embedded in wholesale electricity, in fuel prices from 2028, and in what suppliers charge. An appraisal that stacks a compliance cost, an energy delta and a shadow price onto the same tonne counts the same effect two or three times.

The second question follows from the first: what an avoided tonne earns. That answer is built from incremental cash flows — the operating saving a measure creates, plus the compliance cost it removes, plus any financing or commercial effect it changes, each attributed once. For efficiency measures, the first term exists at a carbon price of zero.

Four classes of evidence

Published carbon-price figures differ in kind, not only in value. A legislated phase-out schedule and a 2050 model output do not belong in the same sensitivity analysis with the same weight. The paper classifies every figure it cites.

L Legislated

In force or formally adopted

CBAM certificate, €75.36 in Q1 2026

P Proposed

Published, not adopted

ETS cap reaching zero around 2048

M Market forecast

Analyst or model projection

2030 allowance estimates, €80–147

N Normative scenario

What prices would need to be

NGFS shadow price, USD 200–300

The legislated horizon Timeline 2026 to 2050 showing EU ETS1, ETS2 and CBAM milestones, with solid lines for legislated dates and dashed lines for the July 2026 proposal. The legislated horizon Solid: in force or formally adopted. Dashed: proposed 17 July 2026, not adopted — finalisation targeted Q1 2027. DECISION WINDOW 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050 EU ETS1 ~€86/t mid-2026 spot LRF 3.7% · 2031–35 LRF 1.7% · from 2036 cap → 0 · current law cap → 0 · proposal EU ETS2 2028 · trading starts postponed from 2027 2029 · first surrender obligation CBAM definitive regime 2027 · certificate sales open, first surrender 2034 · phase-in complete 2038 · under proposal ENOQI · WHAT A TONNE WILL COST · FIG. 2
Fig. 2 · The legislated horizon

The variable moving fastest is not the price level but the share of emissions that carries any price at all — and that expands on schedules already adopted.

Coverage moves faster than price Bar chart comparing the share of emissions under a carbon price: about 40% in the EU today, about 78% across the EEA from 2028, and 29% globally. Coverage moves faster than price The share of emissions carrying any carbon price rises on legislated schedules, whatever the price level turns out to be. 50% 100% 0 ~40% EU today ETS1 only ~78% EEA from 2028 ETS1 + ETS2 LEGISLATED START DATE 29% Global 87 instruments in force ETS COVERAGE TRIPLED SINCE 2016 ENOQI · WHAT A TONNE WILL COST · FIG. 3 · SOURCES: BLOOMBERGNEF 2025; WORLD BANK 2026
Fig. 3 · Coverage moves faster than price
The library

What access opens

One request, one link, everything below — now and as it grows. The link does not expire.

Contents

What the paper contains

  1. The question, stated precisely
  2. Channel A — Compliance: what is legislated and what it costs
  3. Channel B — Operations and procurement: the energy side of the tonne
  4. Channel C — Transition risk: how counterparties price you
  5. Synthesis: published values, their status, and how to combine them
  6. Implication for planning

Five figures · one consolidated table of published values · 25 cited sources, each with publication vintage

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Applying it

Ranges are not enough on their own

The ranges in this paper cannot be applied as generic multipliers, because each channel attaches to different line items of the same inventory. A defensible appraisal requires a company’s own position at the resolution of individual energy supplies, equipment and purchased inputs — and, across the supply chain, supplier trajectories backed by identified measures with declared effects on specific emission sources. A commitment with a target year carries no information about which purchased inputs will change, by how much, or when.

How Enoqi handles this